According to a recent report by Reuters, the UAE Central Bank has revised its 2025 growth forecast upward to 4.9%, citing increased oil production and strong expansion across non-hydrocarbon industries. The update highlights how both traditional and diversified sectors are working in tandem to support the country’s economic trajectory.
Key takeaways from Reuters’ coverage of the UAE’s growth forecast:
- Hydrocarbon sector output is expected to rise by 5.8% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026.
- Oil production increases are aligned with OPEC+ quotas.
- Higher oil output is expected to offset lower oil prices, supporting government revenues.
- Non-hydrocarbon GDP accounted for 77.1% of total output in Q1 2025.
- Non-hydrocarbon growth is forecast at 4.5% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026.
- Q1 2025 growth of 3.9% was led by manufacturing, finance, construction, and real estate.
The UAE’s upgraded growth outlook emphasises the country’s ability to balance its role as a major energy exporter with the momentum of its diversified economy. While higher oil output remains a central factor, the more telling story lies in the resilience of the non-hydrocarbon sectors – which now represent more than three-quarters of GDP.
This mix of energy-led revenues and non-oil dynamism creates a cycle of confidence. Increased hydrocarbon activity provides governments with greater fiscal space, allowing for sustained investment in infrastructure, housing, and urban development. At the same time, industries such as manufacturing, financial services, and real estate continue to generate independent momentum, reinforcing Dubai’s position as a magnet for capital and talent.
The alignment of healthy economic growth with construction and housing demand is remarkable. A 4.9% national growth rate, supported by both hydrocarbons and non-hydrocarbons, suggests broad-based confidence that filters into property markets. Investors tend to respond not only to sector-specific data but also to the overall health of the wider economy – and these projections signal stability, opportunity, and continued appetite for development.
The UAE’s growth is increasingly underpinned by diversified industries that ensure long-term resilience. This trajectory points to a market where confidence is grounded in fundamentals and where real estate remains a strategic asset within a maturing, globally competitive economy.
Original article reference: Reuters
