Market Insights: September 2024

Emaar Properties led the market with 20.5% off-plan sales, followed by DAMAC at 18.3% and Sobha at 10.3%.

September saw Dubai’s property market cool down with a 1.14% price increase, a step back from August’s 2.48% surge. With average prices now at AED 1,448 per sq.ft., the market continues to ride high - 17.4% above 2014's peak. This more moderate pace could be a healthy signal, possibly indicating the beginning of a more sustainable and balanced market. The off-plan sector, however, is still firing on all cylinders, dominating 72% of Dubai's sales transactions.

September also set a new monthly high with 18,038 sales, putting the market on track for a 30% growth by year-end. This can be attributed to attractive payment plans, lower interest rates, and buyers' confidence in long-term capital gains and rental yields. The surge in off-plan launches added in September (13,500 units) keeps the supply pipeline full, ensuring a strong fourth quarter and beyond.

One major market change has been the price diversity of new launches. Unlike 2023’s luxury-heavy focus, this year has seen developers shift their attention to mid-income and affordable housing. With more active developers and over 250 new projects in store for 2025, entry-level buyers and seasoned investors have much to choose from.

The AED 1M -1.5M price tier led the charge in September, surging by 2.2% to capture 18.9% of the market. This impressive growth was driven by exciting new projects like Lagoon Views in DAMAC Lagoons and Sobha Orbis in Motor City, where mid-category apartments averaged AED 1,722 and AED 1,890 per sq.ft.. Lower-mid apartments at Golf Point in Emaar South also added to the momentum, with sales averaging AED 1,402 per sq.ft..

The AED 1.5M-2M price tier wasn’t far behind, growing by 1.9% to secure a 14.2% market share. This segment benefited from off-plan sales of townhouses at Violet in DAMAC Hills 2, trading at a more budget-friendly AED 778 per sq.ft., alongside upper-mid to high-end apartments at Club Place in Dubai Hills and 360 Riverside Crescent in Sobha Hartland II, where prices reached AED 2,161 and AED 2,474 per sq.ft, respectively.

The AED 3M-5M price tier, meanwhile, dropped by 4% month-on-month to capture 12.8% of the market. This reflects a broader shift as buyers lean toward more budget-friendly options and developers adjust their offerings accordingly.

When grouping all price tiers into three broader categories, the mid-tier (AED 1M-3M) segment maintained its dominance with a 52.9% market share. This growth was due to the AED 1M-1.5M and AED 1.5M-2M ranges increasing by 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively.

The lower-priced segment (under AED 1M) showed mixed results, now accounting for 28.8% of the market. The AED 750K-1M tier increased by 1.1%, while the AED 500K-750K tier dipped slightly by 0.36%, suggesting some stabilisation in demand for more affordable homes.

At the higher end, AED 3M + properties had a more challenging month, with declines across all categories. Altogether, the AED 3M-5M, AED 5M-10M, and AED 10M + dipped by 4%, dropping from 24.6% last month to 18.2% market share this month.

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