Lunaya is selling now. The villa and townhouse collection, the first two apartment buildings, the payment plans and the price sheets are all released, and about 405 sales had been registered with the Dubai Land Department by late September, against 564 houses. The community sits on Sheikh Zayed Road in Jebel Ali, directly opposite Palm Jebel Ali. It is being built by Zaya, the developer behind Al Barari, with FIVE, in what the developer describes as a 50/50 venture. This is our read of the case: the market it sits in, what the homes cost against their neighbours, who is building them, how the money is paid, and what could go wrong.
Start with the segment. Dubai builds apartments and barely builds houses. A house needs ten to twenty times the land of an apartment for similar revenue, so on serviced land inside the city almost every developer builds upward. Villas and townhouses are under a fifth of Dubai's residential stock, and only 5,376 of the homes forecast to be handed over in 2026 are houses, against 91,209 apartments. Fewer than six in every hundred homes delivered this year is a house.
Buyers have noticed. In H1 2026 villas and townhouses were 16% of residential sales (13,100 of 81,839 deals) and 40% of the money: AED 91.3bn of AED 225.7bn. The average villa ticket was AED 6.97M against AED 1.95M per apartment. Apartment and house prices usually move together, but with a supply gap this wide, a wave of new apartments puts much less pressure on houses.
Now the price. On the developer's price guide, The Bloom (a 2,966 sq ft four-bedroom townhouse at AED 5.2M) works out at AED 1,753 per sq ft, and The Rise (a 3,814 sq ft four-bedroom maisonette on the lagoons, from AED 6.9M) at 1,810. Against the median of recent DLD-registered four-bedroom sales in 2026, that is level with Al Barari (1,810) and below Damac Hills (1,850), Tilal Al Ghaf (1,980) and Dubai Hills Estate (2,690). Arabian Ranches 3 (1,530) is lower, and The Valley and Emaar South sit lower still, as volume communities without lagoons, without a 65% green masterplan and without this developer. Lunaya's own registered sales so far have a median of about 1,720 per sq ft on built-up area.
At the top of the collection the comparison is with the developer's own community. The Sol, an 8,231 sq ft five-bedroom independent villa with pool, rooftop terrace and gym, has a price guide of AED 17.0M, or about AED 2,065 per sq ft. Registered five-bedroom sales in Al Barari this year have a median of AED 16.25M at 2,490 per sq ft. The Sol is a larger house at a lower price per foot, from the same team; Al Barari plots are larger, and the gap is what a buyer is paid to carry construction and corridor risk until 2029. Prices at Lunaya have already moved: The Bloom's first registered sales in April were at about AED 4.9M, and The Rise has gone from AED 6.44M to 6.98M in April to AED 6.80M to 7.32M in September.
The density is written into the plan. The site covers 4.2 million sq ft, and the developer states it is permitted for roughly 1,900 units. It is building 564 houses and five G+7 apartment buildings, and says 65% of the land is kept as landscape and water, including about 900,000 sq ft of swimmable beach lagoons, eight lakes and a 4.5 km walking and cycling track. On site the plan includes a signature restaurant, a farm-to-table café, a FIVE-branded spa, padel and tennis, a surf pool, outdoor lagoon cinemas, a kids' club, co-working and a Waitrose.
The developer is the second half of the case. In an off-plan house, the developer answers the two biggest questions: will it be built well, and will people want to live there. Zaya's answer to both is Al Barari, a finished community you can drive through today. Its recent phases re-rated as they matured. On the DLD register, Ixora's developer sales were at about AED 4.0M and 2026 resales have a median of about AED 8.55M, up 114%. A Chorisia 2 villa bought from the developer in 2022 resold this year 95% higher, and Chorisia 1, launched from AED 8.48M, has a 2026 registered median of AED 15.15M, up 79%. Zaya also developed and ran Nurai Island in Abu Dhabi, acquired by Aldar in 2022, and is completing Zuhha Island off Jumeirah, where 28 of 30 villas had sold by October 2025. FIVE brings the hospitality side: Cinque and Ronin, both in the Michelin Guide, and the REFIVE spa.
The location is a corridor being rebuilt. The developer quotes three minutes to Sheikh Zayed Road, seven to Palm Jebel Ali and sixteen to Dubai Marina. Al Maktoum International is an AED 128bn expansion designed for 260 million passengers a year, with its first phase targeted for 2032, about 15 minutes away by the developer's estimate. Palm Jebel Ali is twice the size of Palm Jumeirah, and its five-bedroom villas registered at AED 19M to 32M, about 2,440 to 3,900 per sq ft, between May and September. Lunaya should not be expected to reach frond pricing, but it shares the frond's address, directly across Sheikh Zayed Road.
The payment plan puts most of the money against a finished house. Villas and townhouses follow 40/60: 15% with the SPA (including the September 2026 instalment), 5% in December 2026, 5% in February 2027, 15% on superstructure completion, and 60% on completion from Q1 2029. On The Bloom that is AED 2,080,000 during construction and AED 3,120,000 on completion, plus the 4% DLD fee at SPA. An assignment NOC is available once 25% is paid or six months have passed from SPA, whichever is later. The Lunaya Terraces apartments follow a 25/75 plan, and every house and every priced apartment is above the AED 2M Golden Visa property threshold.
We model illustrative outcomes on The Bloom, with about AED 2.29M of cash committed by completion, and every figure is after the DLD fee and Oqood. Flat: value at completion equals today's price, which leaves you about AED 211k behind. Steady: prices rise about 15% to roughly AED 5.98M, about AED 570k ahead, roughly a quarter of the cash committed. Strong: about 30% to roughly AED 6.76M, about AED 1.35M ahead. If prices fall 10%, to AED 4.68M, you would be about AED 731k behind, and prices can fall further than that. Our rule is to buy for the Flat case and let the others be the reward.
The risks are real and they are mostly about time. This is a 2029 house in a corridor that is still being built. Dubai prices have softened through 2026 after three strong years. Villa yields have compressed as prices rose, to about 4.5% gross across Dubai in H1 2026 against roughly 6.9% for apartments, so a house here is bought for land and growth first and rent second. Sterling and euro buyers carry exchange-rate risk against a dirham pegged to the dollar. And the 60% balance at completion needs a plan, in cash, a mortgage or a sale, before you reserve.
Lunaya suits families planning around 2029, investors looking for capital growth over three to seven years in the scarcest segment of the market, and buyers who value a delivered record over the lowest headline price. It does not suit anyone who needs rental income before handover, cannot fund the balance, or is counting on a quick resale. The best opportunity in a release is rarely every unit. It is the few where frontage, layout, price and your plan for the house all line up, and in a phased release those go first.
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