Market Insights: January 2024

Average prices up 0.19% month-on-month to AED 1,284 per square foot, 4.1% over the previous peak

Middle price tiers of AED 1-3 million drive activity with 48.8% share, up by 4.2%

The Dubai real estate market sailed into 2024, continuing its record-setting ways and achieving all-time high January sales volumes, up 16.8% year-on-year. Average values are on the rise again, this time to 0.19% month-on-month and an AED 1,284 per square foot.

While representing the slowest monthly appreciation rate since July 2022, the results still showcase a remarkable 45.8% cumulative price increase over the past 39 months. As Dubai solidifies itself as a safe haven for global property investment, positive momentum shows little chance of abating.

January saw 11,615 transactions, breaking the previous high by 16.8%. This was led by rampant off-plan sales, with over 11,500 new units launched last month amidst 2023's blockbuster project pipeline. The market looks poised for years of resilient growth supported by strong demand drivers.

Activity continued concentrating in January around Dubai's core middle-market price segments spanning AED 1-3 million, which collectively grew by 4.2% to capture 48.8% market share. The thriving AED 2-3 million tier saw particularly solid 2.5% monthly growth, partly attributed to new project launches such as Oceanz in Dubai Maritime City and Upper House in Uptown DMCC, which achieved impressive sales.

Additionally, the AED 1-1.5 million segment rose 2.4%, with price-conscious purchases at Elitz in Jumeirah Village Circle, The Edge Tower in Business Bay, and Rove Downtown Dubai drawing buyers. Affordability-driven sub-500k units declined 1.7% to 6.4% market share as entry-level inventory remains scarce on the market.

While the ultra-prime 10m+ tier saw no change, deeper analysis uncovered exceptional performance at the very top. A record 49 sales exceeded AED 36.7 million, including 26% transacting with high-end developer Omniyat. As smaller developers saturate mid-market projects, larger communities are differentiating themselves by catering to ultra-high-net-worth investors through coveted luxury and ultra-luxury properties.

Dubai's property market is on a momentous 45.8% growth trajectory since hitting prior lows in October 2020, averaging a vigorous 1.2% in monthly gains over the 39 month period. January 2024 saw the index notch yet another all-time high, now standing firmly 4.1% over the previous peak.

With sales volumes accelerating at pace and plenty of newly announced supply slated to enter the market, conditions are primed to fuel further price increases throughout 2024.

Underpinned by world-class infrastructure and an open business environment paired with stability, Dubai's property dynamism displays resilience and balance capable of sustaining long-term prosperity, with forecasts remaining positive for 5-8% further growth in 2024.

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