Market Insights: November 2023

The AED 3-5 million price tier leads with the fastest growth of 1.4% in November

Dubai's real estate market demonstrates exceptional growth as reflected by the 1.17% month-on-month increase in property prices between October and November. This represents an average property price of AED 1,271 per square foot across Dubai, marking the highest level ever recorded.

Prices have now risen 44.9% since initially bottoming out in October 2020 and are over 3% above the previous peak seen in September 2014. On a year-over-year basis, prices have increased by 18.1%, which marks 33 straight months of year-on-year increases. The year-to-date growth is 12.59% compared to 11.23% at the same time last year.

The November data shows that the strength seen throughout 2022 has carried through to 2023, with record transaction volumes and new project launches suggesting no signs of slowing in the near future. Current market conditions point towards continued price appreciation over the coming 12 months.

The AED 3-5 million price tier saw the fastest growth at 1.4% in November, reaching a 13.2% share of the market. This growth was driven by single-family home sales at projects like South Bay 3 and Expo City Valley in Dubai South, where townhouses averaged AED 916 and AED 1,408 per sq.ft respectively.

On the other end, the sub-500k tier fell 2.4% to a low 6.2% share, down from 8.6% in October. High-end tiers above AED 3 million, however, rose by 1.2% each, while AED 10 million-plus saw impressive growth of 5.1%.

This reflects  strength from sales in the high, luxury and ultra-luxury categories across Dubai where price per square foot values begin at AED 2,206 for apartments, AED 1,580 for villas and AED 1,083 for townhouses.

Analysis of price tier evolution shows the mid-range from AED 1m to 3m held its commanding market share of 44.4% in November, ticking up 0.1%.

Sub-1m tiers dropped 3.9% to 31.2% share, falling for the third straight month, but top-end luxury tiers above AED 3m simultaneously rose 3.8% to a 24.4% share to make yearly gains on steady high-net-worth demand.

While low and high ends tapered in different directions, mid-range strength persisted. This dynamic points to a stabilisation taking shape - a pullback from extremes with most buyers clustered in the AED 1m-3m sweet spot.

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