Fitch’s assessment on 28 May 2025 anticipated a moderate correction from the second half of 2025 into 2026, with prices not expected to fall by more than 15%, while Moody’s, as reported on 10 February 2026, expected modest cooling over the following 12 to 18 months. S&P took a different view in October 2025, saying population growth should absorb most homes completing between 2025 and 2027. These are dated outlooks, not certainties. A Dubai property price forecast is best used as an input to a purchase decision: test whether the investment still works if prices fall, stay flat or rise, rather than relying on one precise prediction.
What do ratings agencies expect for Dubai property prices?
In its 28 May 2025 analysis, Fitch Ratings described a moderate correction as likely in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, while expecting any price decline not to exceed 15%. Fitch also noted that Dubai home prices had risen about 60% between 2022 and the first quarter of 2025. Its concern was the pace of new supply: Fitch projected supply to increase by an average of about 16% a year from 2025 to 2027, compared with population growth of about 5%.
Moody’s outlook, reported by The National on 10 February 2026, pointed to modest cooling over the next 12 to 18 months. Moody’s cited around 180,000 homes expected to be delivered in Dubai from 2026 to 2028, or about 60,000 a year, against a historical delivery rate of roughly 30,000 to 40,000 a year. It said modest outright price declines were probable for mid-market studios and one-bedroom homes. This is a segment-specific assessment, not a forecast for every property type.
S&P Global Ratings offered a more absorption-focused view on 28 October 2025, saying population growth should absorb most units completing between 2025 and 2027. In a separate statement in March 2026, S&P said the sector should withstand the regional conflict in its base case, which assumed a short, intense phase, while identifying real estate as an exposed sector. Those were separate assessments made on different dates, and should not be treated as one forecast. Read our analysis of whether Dubai’s property market could fall for more on how to interpret correction risks.
How much housing supply is expected by 2028?
Delivery estimates point to a large pipeline, but projected handovers should not be mistaken for completed homes. In its Q1 2026 report, Cavendish Maxwell projected about 77,500 units for 2026, 146,400 for 2027 and 120,100 for 2028. The same report said only 42.3% of projected completions for Q1 had arrived. The figures describe a forecast pipeline, with actual delivery dependent on construction and handover progress.
Delivery timing may also change. In its Q2 2026 analysis, Savills reported that developers were extending delivery schedules from roughly three years to around four. This affects when new homes reach the market, but it does not remove the need to assess competing supply in a property’s price bracket and location.
The contrast between supply estimates and absorption is central to the outlook. Fitch’s May 2025 projection used population growth of about 5% a year, while S&P’s October 2025 view was that population growth would absorb most homes completing through 2027. Moody’s February 2026 analysis, by comparison, highlighted a delivery pace above historical levels and identified possible declines in mid-market studios and one-bedroom units. Investors should weigh these views against the particular building and unit they are considering, rather than assume one citywide outcome.
What do sales activity and population figures tell investors?
Dubai’s transaction totals show substantial market activity, but they do not establish that prices will keep rising. The Dubai Department of Finance reported that real estate transactions exceeded AED 917 billion in 2025. Dubai Land Department data recorded AED 252 billion in Q1 2026, while DLD figures reported by Emirates 24/7 for the first nine months of 2026 totalled AED 574.12 billion. The pace in the 2026 quarters after Q1 has run below Q1. Transaction value is a measure of activity, not a direct measure of price growth.
Population provides another point of context for housing demand. Gulf News reported Dubai’s population at 4,807,185 in September 2026. Growth in residents can support housing needs, but its effect on prices depends on factors such as the type and location of homes delivered, household formation, rents and buyer affordability.
What the Dubai 2040 plan adds to the long-term outlook
The Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan sets a target of 5.8 million residents by 2040, according to The National’s coverage of the plan. It offers a long-term framework for the city’s development and future housing needs. For investors, it is useful context for thinking about how Dubai may grow, but it is not a property-price forecast or a guarantee that demand will reach a particular home.
Use the plan as one part of a wider assessment. Consider whether a property suits likely residents, how it connects to established services and transport, and what competing homes are planned nearby. Long-term city planning can inform a holding thesis, but the purchase still needs to stand on its own rental assumptions, costs and resale options.
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Download free→How should investors underwrite a Dubai purchase?
When forecasts differ, a robust underwriting process starts with the property’s cash flows and costs, then tests how they respond to changing conditions. This is more useful than trying to identify the exact point at which the market will turn.
- Set a clear holding period. Decide how long you can hold the property and whether you could manage a slower resale or a period of weaker pricing.
- Use conservative rental assumptions. Allow for vacancies, maintenance and other ownership costs when estimating net rent. Global Property Guide reported a Dubai gross rental yield of 5.53% in Q2 2026, but gross yields do not account for individual property expenses or guarantee the net income from a specific home. For more on rental calculations, see our guide to Dubai rentals and yields.
- Check the relevant supply pipeline. Compare the property with homes that could appeal to the same tenants or buyers. Look at the project’s progress and the likely timing of competing handovers, not just announced delivery dates.
- Include transaction and ownership costs. Model purchase costs, ongoing charges and selling expenses before deciding what price change the investment can absorb.
- Account for your own tax and currency position. Your home-country tax treatment and the currency used to fund and measure the investment can affect the result.
For current market context, our Dubai market update for Q1 2026 reviews activity and market conditions. Investors considering Jumeirah Village Circle can also review the JVC area guide alongside the figures for an individual unit.
Worked example: a five-year hold of a JVC one-bedroom
The following is one illustrative worked example, not an M&M price forecast. Assumptions are a purchase price of AED 1,100,000, an all-in acquisition cost of AED 1,171,820, net rent of AED 53,750 a year for five years, and selling costs of 2% plus VAT. The model assumes net rent remains unchanged, excludes financing and home-country tax, and compares the result with the all-in acquisition cost.
- Rent over the hold: AED 53,750 × 5 = AED 268,750.
- Price 10% lower: sale price AED 1,100,000 × 0.90 = AED 990,000. Selling costs are AED 990,000 × 2% × 1.05 = AED 20,790. The outcome is AED 990,000 - AED 20,790 - AED 1,171,820 + AED 268,750 = AED 66,140, or AED 66,140 ÷ AED 1,171,820 = 5.6% over five years.
- Flat price: sale price AED 1,100,000. Selling costs are AED 1,100,000 × 2% × 1.05 = AED 23,100. The outcome is AED 1,100,000 - AED 23,100 - AED 1,171,820 + AED 268,750 = AED 173,830, or AED 173,830 ÷ AED 1,171,820 = 14.8% over five years.
- Price 10% higher: sale price AED 1,100,000 × 1.10 = AED 1,210,000. Selling costs are AED 1,210,000 × 2% × 1.05 = AED 25,410. The outcome is AED 1,210,000 - AED 25,410 - AED 1,171,820 + AED 268,750 = AED 281,520, or AED 281,520 ÷ AED 1,171,820 = 24.0% over five years.
In this model, rent carries the result across all three cases, while the sale price changes the total return. That makes the rental assumption, costs and ability to hold just as important as the price outlook. The figures do not account for home-country tax.
Planning beyond a single price prediction
Agency forecasts offer useful reference points, but their different assumptions and publication dates make them unsuitable as precise instructions for an individual purchase. The practical test is whether the property remains viable under a less favourable resale outcome and realistic rental assumptions.
For a broader discussion of Dubai’s fundamentals, see our Dubai outlook report and the Is Dubai done? resource. To discuss how a specific property fits your investment criteria, contact M&M Real Estate.
